Development of accident prediction models for cantonal roads

The cantonal road network in the Canton of Aargau covers a total of 1,154 km. In 2013, more than 1,100 road users suffered minor injuries on these roads, with a further 300 seriously injured, plus 15 fatalities.

Although the number of people injured on the roads has been declining over the past several years, the Canton of Aargau is keen to increase the safety of the cantonal road network even further through targeted measures.

An important tool for road infrastructure operators is the forecasting of future accident occurrences by means of parameterised and geo-referenced accident prediction models. Such models can be employed as objective tools for decision-making with regard to the targeted selection of risk-reducing measures and optimum planning alternatives.

On behalf of the Traffic Safety Department of the Civil Engineering Office of the Canton of Aargau, EBP analysed the existing data for the canton as part of a feasibility study and examined the usability of these data for the development of accident prediction models for the cantonal road network in Aargau. The company also made recommendations with regard to the implementation of an accident prediction model as part of the road infrastructure management process.