Project

Transportation outlook 2040

The Swiss government has issued the new transportation development forecasts that it uses in conjunction with other data when planning new road and rail infrastructure projects in the context of implementing its transportation policy guideline “Transportation Outlook 2040”. Working together with Infras and PTV (Dresden), EBP played a key role in gathering the relevant data and drafting the forecasts on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office for Spatial Development.

The Swiss government relies on transportation development forecasts and other data in the context of drafting its transportation infrastructure programs and making other decisions relating to transportation. Acting on behalf of the government, the Swiss Federal Office for Spatial Development (ARE) commissioned the drafting of the forecasts, which are based on a range of parameters, including the latest forecasts of population and job development, as well as data pertaining to passenger and freight traffic, individual modes of transportation and future demand in light of expected economic and population development.

Using traffic demand models made available by the government, EBP began its evaluation by ascertaining the impact that economic and demographic developments, as well as transportation costs, infrastructure development and technological changes can be expected to have on passenger and freight transportation in Switzerland. The main calculations were expanded through the addition of sensitivity assessments that translate the various forecasts of economic and demographic development into forecasts of transportation demand. Changes in spatial structure, cost development and other variables were also assessed on the basis of alternative scenarios.

The results indicate that traffic will continue to grow in the coming decades, although at a slower rate than in the last 20 years. However, the continued economic and population growth is expected to be accompanied by a trend towards saturation in key parameters, including motorization, demand for public transportation passes and the number of daily trips per person. Indeed, the data indicate a slight decoupling of structural growth and traffic related growth.

Working together with Infras and PTV (Dresden), EBP helped to draft the government’s policy guideline “Transportation Outlook 2040”. In particular, EBP assumed responsibility for the evaluation of passenger transportation and the traffic modeling. The scope of the assignment included also carrying out retrospective analyses of development, assistance to the drafting of scenarios and modeling important traffic-related variables.

Picture Credits: Yves Maurer, Bern