Project

Population and Employment Forecast for the Canton of Uri

The Canton of Uri is keen to ascertain how the population and employment in the canton and its regions will look in the future. EBP was tasked with forecasting population and employment development in the Canton of Uri.

As part of the work to revise its development plan, the Canton of Uri needs to determine how many development zones will be necessary to meet cantonal and regional needs and to identify how the settlement area in the canton should develop. In need of sound and reliable population and employment development figures for both the canton and the region, the Land Development Office has commissioned EBP to work out a population and employment forecast for the Canton of Uri for reference periods extending to 2030 and 2040.

Our forecast is based on a recognised and proven model that was adapted to the particularities of the canton, as well as on various assumptions that the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) uses for its own cantonal population forecasts. However, the forecast goes beyond FOS forecasts in that it 1) includes specific statements on the development of individual regions within the Canton of Uri, 2) takes account of important regional growth factors and their impact on the canton and neighbouring regions and 3) accounts for future developments in the area of employment.

Three different scenarios were worked out to show various possible developments.

The forecast of population and employment development that we drafted for the Canton of Uri offers a good basis for revising the cantonal development plan. The forecast also provides a basis for addressing other questions relating to the future development of the canton and its various regions, including an estimate of the need for infrastructure development and transportation-services planning.

Picture Credits: bildfluss / Christof Hirtler, Altdorf